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NCA Global Compass & Insights

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Argentina map

Dashboard Explanation

A: Total market size by country (dark blue indicates the largest market size, light blue shows the smallest market sizes)

B: Country specific data highlighting total market size, per capita consumption and the forecast growth CAGR, as well as that country’s global rank for each data point

C: Global market size for total confectionery in US$ millions

D: Market size comparison for total confectionery across each region

  • Forecast Market Growth Rate: 14.1% absolute growth 2016-2021, which is slower than the growth rate during the historic period.
  • Per Capita Confectionary Spending: US$49.4, which is the second highest among the countries studied in the Latin America region.
  • Opportunity: Confectionary products that provide health and wellness benefits, such as sugar-free gum and dark chocolate, are expected to perform strongly.

Argentina custom datagraphic

  • Forecast Growth Rank: A ranking of 16 out of the 36 studied countries demonstrates how the volatile economic market is negatively impacting growth.
  • Per Capita Spending on Sub-categories: Consumers purchase the most chocolate confectionary at US$20.4, followed by sugar confectionary at US$18.6.
  • Key Sub-category: Argentina’s gum market is the 8th largest out of the 36 countries studied, highlighting gum’s popularity within the country.

Quick Facts

  • The Argentinean confectionary market totaled US$2.2 billion in 2016 and is forecast to grow 2.7% annually through 2021.
  • Chocolate confectionary leads all the subcategories with a 41.3% share of total confectionary, with sugar confectionary in second place (37.4% value share), and gum in third place (21.4% value share).
  • Value sales of chocolate confectionary will grow faster than those of sugar confectionary and gum. An improving economy and increasing demand for premium chocolates is driving the trend.
  • The overall confectionary market is expected to grow more quickly in the forecast period than it did in the historic period as the Argentine economy improves and consumers have more disposable income to spend on impulse purchases.


Sugar Confectionery

Market Trends

Due to the weak Argentine economy, consumers have less money to spend on impulse purchases, and sales of sugar confectionary declined in 2016. Medicated confectionary was the least impacted, posting only a modest decline in sales volume, due to strong demand among teenagers and young adults and significant advertising. Pastilles, gums, jellies and chews posted the largest decline in sales volume as parents increasingly encourage their children to choose products they consider to be healthier. High inflation and a currency devaluation caused the average unit price to increase sharply in 2016.

Competitive Landscape

Argentina-based Arcor dominates the sugar confectionary landscape in Argentina with 60.9% retail value share in 2016. International companies Mondelez and Ferrero were the second- and third-place players with 14.5% and 4.5% value share, respectively. Mondelez increased its share by three percentage points in 2016, due largely to its acquisition of several iconic brands from Argentine food company Molinos Rio de la Plata.

Future Outlook

Sugar confectionary is forecast to reverse the recent downward trend and post increased sales volume growth across the next several years as the Argentine economy improves. Pastilles, gums, jellies and chews is expected to post the highest retail volume growth, followed by mints and medicated confectionary. Products that are beneficial for oral health will play increasingly important roles in coming years. Therefore, products containing tooth-friendly ingredients such as xylitol and calcium glycerophosphate will have an edge over traditional products. The average unit price is expected to grow at a double-digit rate along with inflation.

Source: Euromonitor International


Chocolate Confectionery

Market Trends

Due to the weak Argentine economy, consumers have less money to spend on impulse purchases, and sales of chocolate confectionary declined in 2016. Chocolate pouches and bags was the only subcategory to register sales volume growth, however, due mainly to the relaunch of Arcor’s Citos umbrella brand and its major advertising campaigns. Seasonal chocolate posted the largest sales volume decline—a victim of consumers’ decreased purchasing power. High inflation and a currency devaluation caused the average unit price to increase sharply in 2016. Demand for dark chocolate is increasing, as consumers increasingly view it as healthier than milk chocolate.

Competitive Landscape

Argentina-based Arcor dominates the chocolate confectionary landscape in Argentina with 51.5% retail value share in 2016. International companies Mondelez and Ferrero were the second- and third-place players with 14.4% and 9.5% value share, respectively. Nestlé registered the strongest value share growth in 2016, due to the popularity of its Kit Kat brand, which launched in Argentina in 2015.

Future Outlook

Over the forecast period chocolate confectionary is expected to reverse its recent downward trend and post modest retail volume growth. Countlines is expected to see the highest sales volume growth, followed by tablets and chocolate pouches and bags and chocolate with toys. Competition will likely increase as import restrictions have been eased and international companies increasingly look to enter the Argentine market. Prices are expected to increase in line with inflation.

Source: Euromonitor International


Gum

Market Trends

Gum sales volume in Argentina declined in 2016, due to weak demand from children and adolescents. Sugar-free gum registered the lowest sales volume decline, due to new product launches, advertising campaigns, and consumers’ perceptions of it as a healthier alternative to traditional products. The most popular flavors are mint, fruit, strawberry and banana. The average unit price increased sharply, in line with high inflation and rising ingredient costs.

Competitive Landscape

The gum market in Argentina is highly consolidated, with Mondelez accounting for 52.6% of sales value and Argentina-based Arcor taking 43.0% share. Mondelez’s category leadership is due to its acquisition of historically popular brands such as Beldent and Bazooka Bubbaloo.

Future Outlook

Gum sales volume will decline slightly over the forecast period, as parents increasingly encourage their children to avoid gum. Chewing gum sales volume will post a strong increase, due to growing demand for sugar-free gum, but that will be offset by a strong decline in bubble gum sales volume. The elimination of import barriers will foster competition as international brands such as Wrigley’s and Extra enter the market. The average unit price is projected to increase in line with Argentina’s high level of inflation.

Source: Euromonitor International


Retailing

Quick Facts

  • In 2015, grocery retailers recorded 27% current value growth to reach ARS614.2 billion
  • Retailers are investing in local stores, boosted by changes in consumption habits
  • Carrefour Argentina leads grocery retailers in 2015 with a value share of 6%, driven by new stores
  • Over the forecast period, grocery retailers is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% at constant 2015 prices, reaching ARS826.6 billion in 2020

Market Trends

Grocery retailers invested exclusively in chains, which performed better as a result of the economic crisis and the changing consumption habits of consumers. Furthermore, the deepening of the economic crisis continued to benefit cash and carry chains. This channel offers significant discounts for volume purchases, unlike supermarkets or hypermarkets. The economic crisis resulted in a fall in consumers’ purchasing powers. Given this context, Argentineans became very rational consumers, preferring local stores as a better way of managing their expenditure. With such outlets, they focused on small purchases and on replacement, while not being tempted by non-essential products that were available in large retail outlets. Internet retailing by grocery chains was very underdeveloped towards the end of the review period, and was growing at a very slow pace. Slow development was due to several reasons: firstly because online prices were usually more expensive than those in-store, secondly because retailers charged for delivery, an expense that consumers prefer to avoid during periods of weak purchasing powers, and thirdly because retailers did not have yet offer significant coverage online, with even the leading chain Carrefour not providing an online sales platform.

Competitive Landscape

Carrefour Argentina led grocery retailers with a 6% value share in 2015. The company is investing very strongly in the convenience store chain Carrefour Express; the change in the purchasing habits of Argentineans is driving Carrefour Argentina to invest exclusively in convenience stores. Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentación (Dia) recorded the strongest value sales growth of 9% in 2015, reaching a value share of 3% within grocery retailers. The chain Dia was also the one of strongest in terms of expansion, opening 65 new stores in 2015. The franchise system allows Dia to grow much faster than its competitors. The chains Jumbo and Disco are focused on high- and middle-income consumers, and therefore they are the chains with the widest range of imported products. No chain is present throughout the entire country.

Future Outlook

The economic crisis will continue to impact the investment decisions of the principal chains of grocery retailers in Argentina in the short and medium term. These retailers will focus on the opening up and development of local stores. Convenience stores are set to be the most dynamic channel over the forecast period. This expected strong performance is because many chains are looking to expand within this channel, such as Carrefour Express, Coto and Mini Libertad, while others intend to open their first outlets, such as Wal-Mart de Argentina and Jumbo Retail Argentina. Discounters are set to be the second most dynamic channel after convenience stores over the forecast period. Internet retailing within grocery retailers will continue to grow over the forecast period, although participation from store-based retailers will continue to be low.

Source: Euromonitor International


Income & Expenditure

Per capita annual gross income rose by 10.3% in real terms between 2009 and 2014 to reach ARS83,698 (US$10,302) by 2014. Growth of annual per capita gross income during the period of 2009-2014 was the fastest amongst Latin American economies, reflecting Argentina’s robust economic expansion in this period (backed by large levels of government spending and public investment), as well as understated inflation figures by the Argentinean government (which result in faster income growth rates in real terms).

Over the period of 2015-2030, the rate of expansion of Argentina’s per capita annual gross income is expected to decelerate in real terms. This will reflect challenges to the Argentinean business environment, including government intervention in the economy; high total tax rates; and excessive levels of red tape, which will weigh on the expansion of the Argentinean economy in the long term.

Social class D (low income earners) is predominant in Argentina, accounting for 34.4% of the country’s population aged 15+ in 2014. Compared to Latin American averages, the share of Argentina’s social class D is larger than the regional average of 31.0% in that year. This is the result of measures implemented by the Argentinean government, including large spending on social programs, subsidies and price controls, which have supported income growth of individuals in the lowest social class (social class E) and have allowed a portion of them to transition to higher social classes.

Social class D is expected to remain as the largest social class in Argentina by 2030, although its share of the country’s population aged 15+ is forecast to increase only slightly to reach 34.8% by that year, reflecting expected slower growth rates of per capita gross income for lower-income deciles during that period.

Income inequality in Argentina is expected to keep gradually decreasing in the long term, although at a slower pace than observed since the early 2000s, as the country’s decelerating economic expansion will curb growth of social spending by the Argentinean government over the long term.

Per Capita Annual Disposable Income, Spending and Savings Ratio: 2009-2014

Argentina I&E Graph

Consumer expenditure per capita totaled ARS79,819 (US$8,612) in 2015. In 2016, the indicator will decline by 1.2% in real terms. For the period 2015-2030, total consumer expenditure will grow at an average annual rate of 3.0% in real terms..

Household Expenditure by Region: 2014

Argentina Region Graph

Source: Euromonitor International


Demographics

Argentina's population has been slowly growing over time and totaled 43.4 million in 2015. The median age is also rising. It was 30.8 years in 2015 - 3.0 years higher than in 2000. The birth rate is gently falling and the downward trend will continue in the future. Fertility rates have decreased over the past several decades but other factors (such as the growing number of women of childbearing age) slow the decline in the number of young children.

Argentine society is ageing at an accelerating pace. The number of those over 65 years totaled 4.7 million in 2015 - more than one million more than the figure for 2000. This group currently represents 10.9% of the total and the share will rise to 13.1% by 2030.

Source: Euromonitor International


Economy & Trade

Argentina can expect a modest contraction as the economy slowly adjusts to the new government's macroeconomic policies. Real GDP will fall by 1.1% in 2016 after growth of 1.4% in 2015. Exports will be weak despite the recent currency depreciation. A lack of investment, the prolonged depression in Brazil and the slowdown in China will also undercut prospects.

Officially, inflation was 17.9% in 2015 and prices will rise by 30.6% in 2016. Capital controls were lifted in December 2015, allowing virtually unlimited access to foreign currency. Following the move, the peso immediately fell by nearly one third. The depreciation will create upward pressure on prices as will the recent cut in various subsidies.

Unemployment stood at 7.2% in 2015 and it will drop to 7.0% in 2016. Real wages have fallen by more than 10% since the beginning of 2014 owing to high rates of inflation.

The real value of private final consumption rose by 3.3% in 2015 but a decline of 0.2% is expected in 2016.

Source: Euromonitor International


US Exports to Country (2015)
Value (US$, thousands) 724.7
Volume (metric tons) 2883
US Imports from Country (2015)
Value (US$, thousands) 7368
Volume (metric tons) 3888.5


VALUE by month - US Exports to Country (US$, thousands)
Year January February March April May June July August September October November December
2013 201 396 579 769 552 240 694 691 580 25 845 902
2014 355 167 160 573 708 478 1,030 325 404 310 130 180
2015 268 155 162 518 185 400 169 206 193 318 250 60
2016 382 444 224 426 117 180 1,502 787 275 31 92 127
2017 123 239 1,101 537

VOLUME by month - US Exports to Country (metric tons)
Year January February March April May June July August September October November December
2013 38 90 157 109 98 43 129 106 112 7 144 145
2014 82 52 41 118 138 106 213 52 77 58 35 21
2015 84 28 64 132 46 82 41 68 50 47 74 10
2016 60 89 48 79 28 31 263 163 75 6 38 37
2017 22 68 159 64


Definitions

Retailers

Retailers selling predominantly food/beverages/tobacco and other everyday groceries. This is the aggregation of supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounters, convenience stores, independent food stores, chained forecourt retailers, independent forecourt retailers, food/drink/tobacco specialists and other grocery retailers.

Convenience Stores

Chained grocery retail outlets selling a wide range of groceries and fitting several of the following characteristics: extended opening hours, a retail area of less than 400 square meters, located in residential neighborhoods, handling two or more of the following product categories: audio-visual goods (for sale or rent), take-away food (readymade sandwiches, rolls or hot food), newspapers or magazines, cut flowers or potted plants, greetings cards, etc. Example brands include 7-Eleven and Spar. Note: The number of branches required to be termed chained varies from country to country, but is usually ten or more. If a multinational is operating in the country, then this is included, even if the brand operates less than ten outlets.

Discounters

Discounters typically have a retail space of between 400 and 2,500 square meters. Retailers' primary focus is on selling private label products, within a limited range of food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries at budget prices. Discounters may also sell a selection of non-groceries, frequently as short-term special offers. Discounters can be further differentiated as hard discounters and soft discounters. Hard discounters were first introduced by Aldi in Germany, and are also known as limited-line discounters. These retail outlets are typically 300-900 square meters, and stock fewer than 1,000 product lines, largely in packaged groceries. Goods are mainly private label or budget brands. Soft discounters are usually slightly larger than hard discounters, and are also known as extended-range discounters. Retail outlets of this type typically stock 1,000-4,000 product lines. In addition to private label and budget brands, soft discounters commonly carry leading brands at discounted prices. The discounter retail format excludes mass merchandisers and warehouse clubs. Example brands include Aldi, Lidl, Plus, Penny, Netto, etc.

Forecourt Retailers

Forecourt retailers are retail grocery outlets selling a wide range of groceries from a gas station forecourt, and meet several of the following characteristics: extended opening hours, retail area of less than 400 square meters, offering two or more of the following product categories: audio-visual goods (for sale or rent), take-away food (readymade sandwiches, rolls or hot food), newspapers or magazines, cut flowers or potted plants, greeting cards, or automotive accessories. Sales data excludes gasoline sales. Example brands include BP Connect, and Shell Select. Forecourt retailers are an aggregation of chained forecourt retailers and independent forecourt retailers

Hypermarkets

Hypermarkets typically have a retail space of more than 2,500 square meters, with a primary focus on selling food/beverages/tobacco and other groceries. Hypermarkets also offer a range of non-grocery merchandise. Hypermarkets are frequently located in out-of-town sites, or serve as the anchor store in a shopping center. Example brands include Carrefour, Tesco Extra, Géant, E Leclerc, Intermarché, and Auchan. This retail format excludes cash and carry, warehouse clubs and mass merchandisers. For the hypermarket channel, Euromonitor International also provides a breakdown of value sales between grocery and non-grocery products.

Supermarkets

Supermarkets focus primarily on groceries, and have a retail space ranging from 400 to 2,500 square meters. This retail format excludes discounters, convenience stores and independent grocery stores. Example brands include Champion, Tesco, and Casino. Exception: In some markets, primarily the US, Australia and Hong Kong, there are grocery retailer brands that operate outlets with a selling space of over 2,500 square meters, but offer only a very limited range of non-grocery merchandise or none at all. These brands are included in the supermarket category. Examples include Coles, Woolworths, and Park ‘n Shop. For the supermarket channel, Euromonitor International also provides a breakdown of value sales between grocery and non-grocery products.

Traditional Grocery Retailers

Traditional grocery retailing is the aggregation of those channels that are invariably non-chained and are therefore owned by families or individuals. Traditional grocery retailing is the aggregation of three channels: independent small grocers, food/drink/tobacco specialists and other grocery retailers. While there can be modern (chained) food/drink/tobacco specialists or other grocery retailers operating in this sales channel, these stores are still considered as traditional according to Euromonitor International’s criteria.

Other Grocery Retailers

Other retailers selling predominantly food, beverages and tobacco or a combination of these. This category includes kiosks, markets selling predominantly groceries, food and drink souvenir stores, regional specialty stores, and CTNs (CTN = Confectionery, Tobacco and News retailers). Direct home delivery of milk and meat from dairies and farms is excluded. Sari-Sari stores in the Philippines and Warung (Waroon) in Indonesia, that can either be markets or kiosks, are included in other grocery retailers unless they occupy a separate permanent outlet building, in which case they are included in independent small grocers. Outlets located within wet markets, particularly in Southeast Asia (often located in government-owned multi-story buildings) should be counted as separate outlets.

Confectionery

This retail format is the aggregation of chocolate confectionery, sugar confectionery and gum. Note: Retail sales measurements are confined to packaged sales. However, exceptions are made for seasonal chocolate, where unpackaged/artisanal sales are included. Pick ‘n’ mix sales are also included. Finally sales from chocolatiers, typically displayed loose and later packaged (usually in boxes), are also included.

Chocolate Confectionery

This is the aggregation of tablets, countlines, bagged selflines/softlines, boxed assortments, seasonal chocolate, chocolate with toys, alfajores and other chocolate confectionery. Note: Chocolate overtly positioned for baking/cooking purposes is excluded from Euromonitor International's confectionery coverage.

Sugar Confectionery

This is the aggregation of mints, boiled sweets, pastilles, gums, jellies and chews, toffees, caramels, nougat, medicated confectionery, lollipops, liquorice and other sugar confectionery.

Gum

This is the aggregation of chewing and bubble gum. Bubble gum is similar to chewing gum but is specifically marketed at children/adolescents, with blowing bubbles as the principal marketing theme. Both regular and sugar-free gum is included in bubble gum and chewing gum.

Source: Euromonitor International